Was a US attack on Venezuela already predicted? This man earned 36 million rupees overnight!
Just before the US attack on Venezuela, an unknown user made over ₹36 million by betting ₹3.1 million. Surprisingly, this account had only been created a few days earlier. This accurate prediction, made before Trump's announcement, has now raised suspicions of insider trading, or a leak of intelligence.
The sudden, massive US military operation in Venezuela and the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro have caused a sea change in international politics. While the world's intelligence agencies and diplomatic experts were stunned by this development, a man, lurking in a dark corner of the digital world, was seemingly smiling.
This individual not only accurately predicted this highly confidential US mission, but also earned crores of rupees by betting millions on it.
This case has alarmed financial markets and security agencies. This massive gain in the prediction market has deepened suspicions of insider trading, or the leaking of confidential information.
Luck changed in 24 hours
According to a report in The News Republic, the entire game was played out on a platform called "Polymarket," where people bet on future events. When market buzz was that the probability of a US attack on Venezuela was only 6 percent, one user decided to swim against the tide.
This user took a significant risk of approximately $35,000 (approximately Rs. 3.1 million in Indian currency). Normally, when the likelihood of an event occurring is so low, one would avoid making such a large investment.
But as soon as the US carried out the attack and news of President Maduro's arrest broke, the tables turned. Within just 24 hours, the user's bet proved to be absolutely correct, and he pocketed a profit of approximately $400,000, or over Rs. 36 million.
Was America's plan known in advance?
The most suspicious aspect of this entire incident is the user's account and its timing. Investigations have revealed that the account from which this bet was placed was created just three or four days before the attack, on December 27th. New investors typically take time to understand the market, but this user's motive was clear.
This new account was used to place bets on only two things: the first was a US bombing of Venezuela, and the second was that President Maduro would be removed from power by January 31st.
It's no coincidence that a new user placed such a precise and large bet when the world was unaware of the attack. This is why questions are now being raised: did this individual possess any confidential information within the Pentagon or the White House?
The 'game' changed just before Trump's announcement.
This suspicion was further strengthened by an analysis of market data by the Wall Street Journal and Axios. According to the report, the market had been quiet for several weeks, with speculation surrounding Maduro's arrest suddenly picking up steam around 10 pm on Friday.
Just hours before Donald Trump's official announcement on Saturday morning, large-scale bets began to be placed in the market. This raises suspicions that the news had reached certain individuals before it became public.
As soon as Maduro's transfer to US custody was confirmed, this suspicious account withdrew a total of $436,759.61 from its account. The matter is currently under investigation.